The Target

Looking at this long on the QLD position. I am going to look to exit when the futures get to the high value area of 5/12 trading. Just a little more to go.

What Do I Do With This Tight Range Market?

The last few days of trade have been overall much tighter ranges then we have been getting in this past 3 months of trading. Looking at this market profile chart you can see this by noticing that the value areas are small. This is by the way a clear sign that the market is at a decision point. I still am expecting more of a pullback in this recent rally on the daily timeframe but the fact that these levels are not just getting smacked down sais it is not finding the bearish sellers that it once was at key levels like this only a few months back. hmm ..
Anyway from a day-trading point of view. I got whipped around looking for bigger moves the past two days. After realizing how tight these ranges are I decided to attack with a different approach until we get out of this chop. So today my approach has been to take most if not all my profit off at my first targets. No need to hold em in a tight range like this. So far this approach is working well.

Stuck Between 2

looks like it is toying with testing both Friday and Thrusdays value area. Whichever area price makes it way into I expect a move across.

Before The Open

Jobless claims surprised and futures are showing a very strong open.However I am hearing a lot of funds talk about shorts so careful today.

Most advanced pre market: $VNDA,$VICL,$PLAB,$HBAN,$LHCG,$ATRC,$FITB,$THQI,$PLCE…

Head up Bernanke speaks today as market opens

The Little Market That Could

After doing some calculations last night I had placed my line in the sand in the ym chart at 8383ish area. I was looking for this level to hold the market down on any test with the bias to try to at least test some of the untouched point of controls lower. Overnight the market did test lower but with the earlier news about jobs the market took a nice pop and got through my line. Now I have to just wait and see how the market reacts at the open but right now the bulls have proven they still have the ball.

Talk About Balance

Not much to say about the market in the last 24 hours other then that it seems to be in balance and holding itself up. It really just a matter of time and then we should see at least a test of the downside value areas. I am looking around 8220 in the mini Dow futures for a test. I will say that I am a tiny bit surprised that we did not get a test yet. However I would have expected more bull interest today if the market really wanted to just look over the reversion. The longer it hangs out here the more the probability becomes of a test of lower value area.
This chart shows how the market has just been in a tight range around the developing value.

Why No Short?

We opened way above value right .So normally you would think we are looking for a reversion or a short trade. Many mean reversion newbies get confused by this. ALthough we do believe the market is mean reverting to some degree that does not mean the timeframe we are looking at is in that process all the time. SO one way I like to see if my timeframe is totally off is to look at internals. My smaller timeframe intervals did show some point of fatigue. But look at the NYSE tick below. No real weakness at all. This tells me that the timeframe I am looking at(day or smaller) is not the timeframe that is currently holding the market. SO I step aside and let those short signals fade away into the dark. We really need to see a pullback that doe not hold to start thinking about the other direction. Will it happen , YES. Today Probably, right now?, Probably not.

Ever See A Balanced Market?

Here is a look at how the futures are trading about an hour into trading. I am still holding a small long QID position which is and inverse to the market . So overall my bias is still to take this market down for a test of yesterdays value . I have my stop very tight at we are in a balanced area and anything can happen here. It’s just a matter of who wants it more now. Notice the balance in the chart below right on the flat regression line and on the high volume in the profile.

Morning Trading

I have a few mixed signals this morning before the bell. Normally I like to look at my volume profiles and regressions to see in what way the market may be pulled during the morning session. However, more often then not the market like to settle itself down before the open at it’s shorter term midpoint and wait for the day to start. Indeed this is the case today. You can see from this chart that we are sitting at a midpoint and waiting. Let me point out that it looks like we will open right smack down in the middle of our MP value area so let’s expect the market to test value extremes for the first part of the day. Note we do have a double distribution yesterday so that may keep price bouncing back and forth.
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