Lower Value Hit

We got the break under yesterdays point of control and our target of 12241 (LVA) was taken out. I did take a scalp long at that point but now I am flat and going to wait and see if market wants to test this LVA again, or try to head back to POC. So far a good morning. This is fun stuff.

If we see price above and accepted above 12268 keep an eye out for bulls to step in and make an attempt at least back up to 12284 (today’s developing POC)

I Got A Funny Feeling

So Friday’s rally at the end of the day I hear took a lot of folks by surprise. I have to agree. I mean the index futures have looked pretty trashed ever since that big bloody candle on 5/21.  At that point I was looking mainly short longer term. I would say over all I am still looking for more sownside but I think it’s time to step off the gas pedal and coast into this week if you know what I mean. In other words I am going to be patient and let market price action tell me the story rather then try to predict anything. Here is what I looking for.

QQQQ

The qqqq’s are back below 48.37. This was my line to flip to the long side for the past few months., WE did get above it but as you can see from chart below we are back below it. The only thiong that kind of is alarming is that big green candel from Friday/ I don’t , I got a funny feeling about it. It’s just not in the right place. However if I am to keep to my short sentiment I would look for a selloff on Monday. I would like to see a red candel heade through the 8 ema and close below it. If that takes place , it’s a sign oon tuesday to place a short below the low of Monday and see if we can not get down to the 50% retrace of the current trend up and touch 45.84. I would take some off at that point and see if we can go lower. Next resistance down at 44.70. If that does not hold its time to step on the gas again to the downside.

QID

All that about the qqqq’s being said. Now I have to explain why I am coasting into these short sentiments rather then going full speed. Look at this QID chart below. Normally I would want to see the same ideas that I see in the qqqq’s confirm in the QID chart. Right now I do NOT think they confirm one another. The problem is that QID still looks like it still has some short side to it. Which would negate my short in the qqqq’s. QID needs to get of the box area on the chart. And needs to ideally get over 44.76 for me to take it seriously to the long side. SO I am waiting to see how the 50% retrace at 43.25 get handled before I look at this chart again. So with the qqqq’s looking for a possible short, and QID not suggesting the bulls have taken it by the horns. I have to stay on my toes. SO for the next few day’s it’s all intraday trading. Then we will revisit these charts and see what has setup.

What about the good old ES

Quickly on this I am looking at 1414.00 to get broken and price to confirm it like it up above it for me to flip to the long side. A lot of talk about heading down to the 1325.25 area. I agree with this but swing wise I would not short until it is below that number.. If you wanted to be more aggressive then you could apply the same concept to the ES chart as the qqqq. That is, if we get a selloff on Monday and we get a close below the 8 period moving average , well then Tuesday would be a good time to take a short and head for that 1325.25 and then tighten stops and see how we develop. I myself am not going to do this. I am strictly on the intraday trades for the start of this week. Here a quick ES chart.

So I guess to wrap up, what I am saying is the short side still looks the stronger, but I would not count out bullishness yet. And Friday’s EOD rally confirms this. Also I will be watching closely oil prices. As of late, if oil takes off longside the market takes a hit. SO if oil continues to rise, This will  help confirm the short sentiment in the index’s. I guess that all goes without saying. However I am also watching healthcare. I really want to see oil up healthcare break to new lows and transports to fail on the current pullback in price they are in. All would be nice to see. Don’t get me wrong, we will probably not see all these things line up but I am just saying it would be nice.  So Hope it helps. I will be back Monday morning to get into some trades.

One last thing I notice Market Profile wise. In the mini dow contract MP chart below. We see that after some of the last few days of selling we really have just pulled back to around 12247 where I drew a green line. This is what I was expecting and then I wanted to see a break lower. However we had been so close to 12295 ,a untouched POC that I think Friday was an attempt to get at it. We did get it and now I want to see Monday a value area created below it and then I will probably short the qqqq’s. If we don’t get that, then my short sentiment goes on hold until more notice.  Hope you all had a great weekend. See you for some trades tomorrow.

Still In A Holding Pattern

So the LVA of 12866 was met to the tick. But as I mentioned earlier the signals are weak. I am going to take a break. One of the things that I think new traders have a hard time with is knowing when to trade and when not to. In my opinion It’s better to let indecision play out without having a position on. Yes you might miss a move but so what. Another move is right around the corner. So for now I am flat and going to take a break for an hour. Maybe hit the gym. Back in awhile.